Monday, July 27, 2009

New Terrorist Targets

Psychologists concur that human cognition is fairly fixed. Thus, this explains why we become greatly disoriented in environments with infinite vicissitudes: we are stenotopic by design.

Currently, exponentially compounding technological progression, that is independent to the business cycle, is dramatically altering every facet of our lives, albeit on a subtle level. Generally, this implies that people have a feeling that something is different in their lives, and in the world at large, but they are unable to articulate, in exact terms, the sea-changes they see in the world.

This, is in itself very dangerous, and I'll explain why:

A study of history reveals that during periods of rapid societal evolution, a lot of established social institutions crumble, which turns the societal hierarchy upside-down. When this occurs, previously entrenched franchises (and the general masses) are displaced, and they are naturally incensed by their new travails (and the reversal of their fortunes).

Presently, as stated before, the world is rapidly evolving and people generally have a flawed way of relating the causes of the changes to the respective changes. Thus, this essentially implies that displaced individuals have a greater likelihood of venting their anger (about the reversal of their fortunes) towards the wrong constituencies *.

Usually, in these kind of scenarios, the first constituencies in the line of blame are immigrant groups that exhibit the greatest degree of (physical, and cultural) differences to the in-groups of the respective countries they reside in (i.e. unassimilated immigrants), and, segments of the society that are perceived to be profiting, or, deriving benefits from the emergent social order.

However, this time around, the world is much more diverse, racially and culturally, therefore, the majority of the blame for the rapid societal changes won't be shouldered by immigrants; it will be shouldered by individuals and organizations that are perceived to be profiting from the misfortunes of the displaced masses.

Hence, this in turn suggests that the headline risk for wealthy individuals and prominent scientists may be amplified greatly, and thus, any media exposure might inevitably draw them the 'attention' of masses and that are displaced by the sea-changes.

***

Generally speaking, during periods of accelerated change, there is rapid emergence of movements (that are comprised of disenfranchised individuals) that use violent means to resist change (e.g. the Luddites that resisted industrialism during the late 1800s - early 1900s). I speculate that a lot of these movements may increasingly sprawl-up in the near future and they'll cause great tumult in most societies. I also believe that most of these organizations may emerge as religious fundamentalist terrorist groups.

Heretofore, religious fundamentalist terrorist organizations, like al-Qaeda, targeted nations that were prominent on the world stage, but as nation-states progressively decline in influence (owing to rapid globalization that is spear-headed by exponentially compounding technological progression), terrorist organizations may revise their methods and their modus operandi may increasingly reveal a preference for targeting prominent individuals and organizations.

Hence, the new potential terrorist targets may include:
  • Prominent scientists that practise genetic engineering and cloning. They'll be targeted by religious fundamentalist groups for undermining, through their work, the widely-held monotheist concept of creation of lifeforms by God (FYI: A menticide of monotheistic religions, also indirectly mounts a formidable challenge to the moral authority of the leadership of monotheistic religions). When stated simply: monotheistic religions may crumble progressively as genetic engineering advances. In response to this, the leaders of monotheistic religions, seeking to preserve the status quo, may mount efforts to curtail advances in genetic engineering (e.g. by sponsoring movements that oppose societal progression). According to Messr. Richard Watson's riveting text entitled 2009+ 10 trends: Predictions and Provocations, 90% of all scientists and engineers with PhDs will live in Asia by 2010. Therefore, we can expect a lot of terrorist activity, that targets scientists, in Asia, especially in South Korea - because it leads the world's genetic science revolution. (Sounds too radical to be true? Keep your eyes open and you'll see that there is at least an ounce of reality in this assertion).
  • Prominent entrepreneurs and wealthy individuals in BRIC countries and N-11 countries, who'll be targeted for profiting from the global societal upheaval that will ensue the collapse of established societal institutions.
  • The perceived enablers and collaborators of the above-mentioned groups
Therefore, it is prudent for these groups to exercise caution.

* Whenever you get displaced by a technological development or a new societal development - it is usually your fault - you either failed to adapt, or dropped-anchor in the comfort zone for way too long. Furthermore, change is the only thing that is constant, status is transient, and failure to accept this fact is futile.

Thursday, July 23, 2009

I'm slightly Concerned About Covestor Investment Management (CV.IM)

From my new Weblog at: http://chirinda.tumblr.com

Firstly, a quote that sheds more insight on Covestor Investment Management (CV.IM) is in order:

  • "The world’s first retail Multi Managed account or MMA. With an MMA you can invest directly alongside professional and retail investors, managing their own money in their own account. It is a new category of Investment product that gives you access to expert managers like a hedge fund with the security and transparency of a managed account."
In short, this implies that the platform will, in a real-time fashion, continuously execute, on the behalf of retail investors, the portfolio positions of Alpha Fund Managers, thus, enabling retail investors to benefit from the investment acumen of alpha fund managers.

Hmm...
This does sound like an extremely positive thing indeed; empowerment of the multitudes; decentralization of investment expertise; democratization of premium investment data; rocking the investment world’s underlying social order.

However, this might not be a good thing for both retail investors and the originators of the strategies that they mimic.

I’ll explain why:

Widespread dispersion and mimicry of the trading patterns of alpha fund managers will definitely result in overcrowding in certain trades and strategies. (Generally, the degree of overcrowding in specified trades and strategies bears a direct positive relationship to the popularity of the manager who executes the respective trades and strategies).

Usually, when too many market players crowd into a trade, there occurs an imbalance of the market dynamics that sired the underlying opportunity that the trade is formulated to exploit. In a worst case scenario, this results in the disappearance of the targeted alpha-yielding opportunity; in a best case scenario, the opportunity’s alpha-yielding potential somewhat diminishes slightly.

Thus, this implies that when good trades increasingly become overcrowded, they progressively morph from alpha-yielding trades into either beta-yielding trades, or gamma-yielding trades; something that is not in the best interests of alpha fund managers and those who seek to replicate their trades (who I assume to all be rational, profit-maximizing people).

(Another related point: it is also difficult to maneuver your assets in a crowded trade; entries and exits are difficult to execute when everyone else is mirroring your moves.)

Hence, for this reason, I’m not too ecstatic about CV.IM platforms, or other-like technologies: they create parasites (retail investors) that violate the host-parasite balance by butchering their hosts (alpha fund managers) - which also inevitably results in the death of the parasites.