Zimbabwe's Forthcoming Elections: Political Equilibrium, Campaign Points and Herestetics

Exactly four years ago; on the 2nd of March 2009, I wrote:

"The monumental 11th of February 2009 swearing-in ceremony of Zimbabwe's Prime Minister, Mr. Morgan R. Tsvangirayi, and Deputy Prime Ministers; Professor Arthur O.G. Mutambara and Ms. Thokozani Khupe, was the culmination of a protracted political settlement which was fraught with mistrust, false-starts and endless bickering.

Now that the much-awaited all-inclusive government has been formed, and a government of national unity is presently at the helm of Zimbabwe, the conundrum sapping minds of Zimbabweans and members of the wider global community alike, is: 'Will this new administrative dispensation bring about Political Stability; Economic Growth; and, Societal Progression?' In other words, 'Does the new administrative establishment have the mettle to tackle Zimbabwe's problems?'"

Looking back, I can unequivocally assert that the transitional political dispensation managed to arrest the free-fall of the Zimbabwean economy, as Illustration 1 and 2 below show [1]:

Illustration 1 (click on illustration to zoom in) [2] Source: Index Mundi

Illustration 2 (click on illustration to zoom in) Source: Index Mundi

However, this economic resurgence has not translated into employment creation; the official unemployment rate in Zimbabwe still hovers near its 2009 level (95%), see Illustration 3 below:

Illustration 3 (click on illustration to zoom in) Source: Index Mundi

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...The Need for an Incontestable Outcome

There is a truism that Bill Gross, the Founder of PIMCO, likes to utter out. It can essentially be phrased as follows: "capitalism depends on investment, which depends on consumption, which depends on attractive wages [3]. Without real wage growth, profits grow but the real economy can't". Illustration 4, below, sums up Gross's truism:

Illustration 4 (click on illustration to zoom in)

As Illustration 4 shows, a stable geopolitical environment facilitates investment growth. If the forthcoming Zimbabwean presidential and parliamentary elections are conducted in a manner that yields a contestable outcome, there is the risk that the nation would trace the trajectory from c to a in Illustration 5. This would reduce the nation's stability, which, would in turn, curtail inward flows of investment. Ultimately, this would freeze the Zimbabwean unemployment rate above 95%.

Illustration 5 (click on illustration to zoom in)

If the unemployment rate remains at such elevated levels for a prolonged period of time, there is the risk of instability, and the effects of this instability would reverberate across the entire SADC region. Clearly, this scenario is unpalatable. Simply stated, the SADC region cannot afford to have another Zimbabwean election that yields a contestable outcome.

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The next parts of this blog post capture a thought experiment that I conducted on: 1) The Zimbabwean political equilibrium; 2) The 2013 election issues, and; 3) How the political players could use a herestetical strategy to build fusionist coalitions.

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...The Zimbabwean Political Equilibrium

"We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty, and the pursuit of Happiness"

— Thomas Jefferson

The opening quote in this section sums-up what the electorate in any society fundamentally wants; equality, life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness. Therefore, it is reasonable to assert the following: the Zimbabwean 2013 elections will be underpinned by a battle to demonstrate how different policies would allow Zimbabweans to enjoy life and liberty and; to pursue happiness in an egalitarian society. Any political player that fails to demonstrate, by way of triangulation, how its policies satiate the-said fundamental needs will have a campaign that lacks resonance or positive Persuasion Value (see Illustration 5).

Another important aspect of a political message is its Communication Value (see Illustration 5). The key questions that pertain to "Communication Value" can be summed as follows: Is the message well-packaged (format, medium e.t.c.)? Is the correct message being delivered to the correct audience at the correct time? Is the message being delivered by an entity that can best articulate it to the target demographic? In the past elections, Zimbabwean political players made the mistake of bombarding, via the mass media, the electorate with generic messages. This strategy simply won't work in this high stakes election.

Of critical importance is the campaign's Truth Value (see Illustration 5). The key questions that pertain to "Truth Value" can be summed as follows: Is the message credible? Is it supported by multiple objective sources of data or studies? Is the message in alignment with how the electorate perceives the workings of reality? Is the bearer of the message credible? Does the political platform have a track record of doing what it says it will do, when it says it will do it? Does the blend of "spin" in the message overshadow the facts or not?

The above-mentioned three elements (Communication Value, Truth Value and Persuasion Value) form what I term "The Force of Gravity of Rhetorical Elections" (see illustration 5 below). According to Skinner, Bueno De Mesquita, Rice and Kudelia, they tip the balance of a Rhetorical election in favour of the political platform or entity that manipulates them adroitly.

Illustration 5, below, uses the metaphor of a seesaw to exposition the campaign issues of the "incumbent" political party and the opposition parties in Zimbabwe.

Illustration 6 (click on illustration to zoom in)

As Illustration 6 demonstrates, the "opposition parties", large and small, will essentially speak from the same script. However, the resonance of their messages will be differentiated by three things; funding, organizational structures and campaign strategies. Owing to funding constraints, the smaller opposition parties will fail to fashion campaigns with sufficient Communication Value and positive Persuasion Value. Hence, it is reasonable for one to argue that their campaigns will essentially focus on the Truth Value lever.

Otherwise put, they will use a negative campaign strategy that will cast a shadow of doubt on the credibility of the larger opposition parties. In traditional opposition strongholds, like urban areas and the Manicaland and Matebeleland provinces, i.e. where the larger opposition parties are incumbents, the tone of the campaigns would be near-toxic. This would, in effect, polarize the undecided voters. What does this mean? The outcome of the Zimbabwean presidential election will be decided in a run-off!


...What are the Zimbabwean Election Issues?

"The most successful politician is he who says what everybody is thinking most often and in the loudest voice."

 — Theodore Roosevelt

Generally, election issues are memes that capture a society's hopes and fears. They are predominantly influenced by the value system of a society. And, they are essentially underpinned by Maslovian needs. To discern the election issues, I simply asked myself the following questions:

• What do Zimbabweans talk most about, generally?
• What do Zimbabweans complain most about?
• What do Zimbabweans desire most?
• What do Zimbabweans fear most?

I came-up with the list in Illustration 7:

Illustration 7 (click on illustration to zoom in)

 The hot button issues can be summed-up as follows:

1. Monetary Stability: Zimbabweans, from all walks of life, do not want to return to the hyper-inflation era; which they associate with the Zimbabwean dollar. Therefore, it is of paramount importance for political players to clearly stipulate the exact GDP level, Employment level, Debt level, Inflation level that would prompt them to phase-in the Zimbabwean dollar. They will also need to credibly demonstrate how their strategy (for reintroducing the Zimbabwean dollar) would insulate the country from inflation. Failure to do this would be futile. Like the 2008 election, the 2013 election is an economy election.
2. Broadening Participation in the Indigenization and Empowerment Initiative: Make no mistake, the Indigenization and Empowerment initiative resonates with the ordinary Zimbabwean. And, most people would like the initiative to be more broad-based. Further, one or two "implementation issues" have come to the fore, and, political players will need to highlight how they would address these issues.
3. Land Issue, Security of Tenure and Agricultural Productivity: Firstly, the political players would need to present credible pathways that would allow productive landreform farmers to "really own" their land; i.e. they have to demonstrate how they would make land "bankable". Further, they would also need to demonstrate how they would, in a bid to shed-off Zimbabwe's pariah status, conclusively address the "implementation issues" of the land-reform initiative.
   
4. The terms of Chinese participation in the Zimbabwean Economy: This is a hot button issue in most African countries, and, it was one of the factors that determined the outcome of Zambia's last presidential election. Political players would need to credibly demonstrate how they would incentivize Chinese investors to: 1) Respect the country's labour and environmental laws; 2) Enter into value-adding partnerships with Zimbabweans (this is the only thing that would neutralize the Business Elite and Small Entrepreneurs' hostility towards Chinese investment); 3) Beneficiate the resources that they exploit in Zimbabwe; 4) Exercise greater corporate social responsibility; 5) Operate in a transparent manner, and; 6) Create jobs. Failure to do this would be futile.

...Herestetics

Generally, herestetical campaigning is persuasion by idea organization. It allows a political player to negate the "gravitational forces", that were shown in Illustration 6, by linking major and contradictory principles. This strategy allows political players to build a fusionist coalition of groups with disparate needs and wants (refer back to Illustration 7).

Illustration 8, below, depicts how Zimbabwean political players could link their mainstay issues to the hot button issues (in a bid to build fusionist coalitions):

Illustration 8 (click on illustration to zoom in)

The forthcoming Zimbabwean elections would certainly be interesting to follow. While it is difficult to predict who will win at this stage (there are many undecided voters in Zimbabwe), only a finite number of cards can be played [5]. In this post, I have attempted to exposition these cards (barring the violence and opponent suppression and intimidation cards).

Regardless of who wins or loses, my wish is for the Zimbabwean election to be conducted in a manner that is peaceful and yields an incontestable outcome. Because, this is what the Zimbabwean economy really needs to bounce back.

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[1] What contributed to the bounce-back of Zimbabwe? Between late 2008 and the first month of 2009, i.e. when Mr. Patrick Chinamasa was the interim finance minister of Zimbabwe, he introduced a multi-currency framework that included the Zimbabwe dollar. This move formalized the use of the US dollar for transacting, and, it brought a semblance of stability to the Zimbabwean economy. However, the presence of the debased Zimbabwe dollar in the multi-currency framework destorted prices and undermined the gains that could be realized from this policy (Gresham's Law). When Mr. Tendai Biti became the finance minister of Zimbabwe, he demonitized the Zimbabwe dollar. This move removed the distortions that the Zimbabwe dollar created in the currency system, and it allowed USDs and ZARs to flow into the Zimbabwean currency system. How did these currencies flow into the system? The answer: loan sharks! Their lending activities gave Zimbabwe a lifeline. I know this sounds unromantic, but this is the truth. Secondly, the formation of a transitional government earned Zimbabwe goodwill; more tourists started arriving, firms started spending and hiring. This allowed the nation to bounce back.
[2] The price controls that were instituted in the pre-2009 period distort the true pre-2009 inflation figures by a factor of 10,000 to 100,000.
[3] Consumption and Investment are components of aggregate demand.
[4] I cannot stress enough the importance of this action.
[5] Zimbabweans do not speak openly about their political preferences. So, take with a grain of salt any survey finding that attempts to predict (at this juncture) the winner.