Wednesday, February 11, 2009

The eBay, or Google of the future

In his 1993 essay titled The Coming Technological Singularity: How to Survive in the Post-Human Era, mathematician Vernor Vinge suggested that technology may in the future, create entities with greater than human intelligence by interconnecting a grid of computers, which consequently gains consciousness and wakes up as a superhumanly intelligent entity.

At that time, the internet and networking technologies weren't intertwined into every facet of our lives as they now are, and people largely dismissed his assertion as the quixotic and fantastical utterances of an aging mathematician.

Fast-forward sixteen years, we are in 2009, and 1.574313184 billion people (~23.5% of the world's population) now use the internet. The computing power that was once commanded by servers that would fill a room the size of a football pitch, is now commanded by hand-held devices and ordinary desktop computers. The cost-price-efficiency of computers is increasing exponentially, in accordance with Moore's Law, and we'll soon reach a time when individuals/institutions are in possession of more computational power than they could ever use/need. Hence, the question: What do we do with our excess computing power?

The field of wealth management came into existence when people who had excess money came to the realization that they could make their excess money work to generate even more money, thus, exponentially growing their wealth. Similarly, I think that now (more than ever), people with excess computational power need opportunities to put it to work; enabling it to generate something that people have an insatiable appetite for: money.

Unfortunately, the global capitalist economic system has been slow to respond to this need, and this may hinder progress in academical research, medicine, science, defense, web-based applications, and quantitative finance - disciplines that have a perennial demand for more computational power than is offered by the currently-reigning top super-computers. The demand for computational power is existent and the supply of computational power is growing exponentially. What is currently missing, is a market-place, like eBay, that can bring buyers and sellers of computational power together, in a safe environment.


...Wastage of Resources


Unfortunately, a lot of venture capitalists choose to waste valuable resources by investing in online social networking companies. They fail to realize that the economic benefits of investing in social networking start-ups vanished completely when Facebook was created. Facebook is a social platform that allows its users to generate content and to create diverse 'ecosystems' within the platform practically free of charge. Hence, this implies that the platform evolves with the diversity of its user-base, and continually becomes like its user-base in terms of aggregate characteristics.

Thus, as time progresses, Facebook will cater to every conceivable genre of online social networking needs, through applications and groups hosted on the site. This will render obsolete many of the social networking sites in existence today, as most lack the diversity of user-base, and 'user-empowering' features that Facebook has. Therefore, it makes no sense for prudent venture capitalists to continue investing in social networking start-ups, as Facebook has a design philosophy which guarantees it a growing lion's share of the social networking market. Facebook is one of the most disruptive companies in the world, and it will dramatically alter the social networking space in ways we cannot fathom.


...The Googles of the Future


Therefore, venture capitalists must now search for opportunities that will yield them exponential returns. Thus, it is my belief that a 'grid networking' market that brings together the buyers and sellers of computational power in a secure environment, is one of the biggest opportunities they can find.

I think that the Googles and eBays of the near-future have the greatest likelihood of emerging from the field of grid computing, and now, venture capitalists and entrepreneurs need to position themselves for the next big thing, and stop wasting their time and resources on social networking companies.

To those who doubt this assertion, think about this: DWave Systems, a start-up that is producing quantum computing hardware and software solutions, is currently seeking volunteers who'll donate computing resources (read: processor time) to test adiabatic quantum algorithms through a distributed computing grid. The concept of 'others using your computing resources' is already in existence, but it now needs to be monetized through a robust business model that will add value to society.