Saturday, May 23, 2009

An Investment Strategy for the 'Third Wave' of Societal Transition

"To begin with, many of today's changes are not independent of one another. Nor are they random. For example, the crack-up of the nuclear family, the global energy crisis, the spread of cults and cable television, the rise of flextime and new fringe-benefit packages, the emergence of separatist movements from Quebec to Corsica, may all seem like isolated events. Yet precisely the reverse is true. These and many other seemingly unrelated events or trends are inter-connected. They are, in fact, parts of a much larger phenomenon: the death of industrialism and the rise of a new civilization."
— Alvin Toffer in his text entitled The Third Wave

As a self-proclaimed empiricist, I am immoderately pessimistic about the short-term future of mankind, but at the same time, I am also optimistic about the long-term future of the human race. When the preceding statement is expressed in investment jargon; I'm bearish on the foreseeable future of mankind, and bullish on the unforeseeable future of our species.

To expound succinctly on the assertion I made in the preceding paragraph, I believe that the world's short-term future will be characterized by habitual occurrences of acute economic and social pandemonium, which will disintegrate the world order as we know it. The foreseeable future represents a discontinuity in time, when the world begins to change immensely.

Interestingly, this implosion of established social structures will bring out positive changes that will guarantee long-term social stability, and enhanced social welfare for all of mankind. Hence, this simply implies that the foreseeable future will be a period in which the global society will 'incur' costs that are associated with social benefits that will accrue to the 'global village' in the unforeseeable future.

My main aim in writing this post, is to italicize the sea changes that are concomitant to the social transition that is manifesting itself in our midst, and to prescribe a general investment strategy which will enable investors to derive financial advantages (profits) from the changes.

Currently, the majority of the developed world is undergoing the Third Wave of social transition, as was propounded by Messr. Alvin Toffer in his prophetic book entitled The Third Wave. The Third Wave of societal transition is chiefly characterized by the death of industrialism and the rise of a new civilization.

In his text, Alvin Toffer asserts that the following can be regarded as signs of the beginning of 'The Third Wave' (I'll support his assertions with empirical evidence that, in my opinion, suffices):
  • The assault on the nation-state from above and below. Evidence in support of this assertion: The proliferation of social networking communities in the cyberspace has enabled individuals from across the globe to form infinite online-based communities (or groups) that are unconstrained by geography, or bounded by historical nation-states. Therefore, as time progresses, online social networks will increasingly decimate, albeit indirectly, socio-cultural barriers that divide the denizens of this planet, and thus, they will consequentially challenge the notion of sovereignty of nation-states. Hence, this, in essence, will constitute an assault on the nation-state.
  • The emergence of various high technologies, such as cloning, global communications networks, nanotechnology. Evidence in support of this assertion: Obviously, this point is self-evident and does not need further elaboration.
  • The gradual eclipsing of manufacturing and manufacturing goods by knowledge-production and information-processing as the primary economic activity. Evidence in support of this assertion: To support this assertion, I will quote a passage from an essay written by Mr. Michael Milken entitled The Corporate Financing Cube: Matching Capital Structure To Business Risk. In the Essay Milken Says: "In the 1920s, when automobiles became a huge industry, 60 percent of the cost of producing a car was in raw materials and energy. For today's computer chips, it's less than two percent of the cost. Brainpower has become the 'raw material' for building companies. This human capital, combined with the social capital of democracy, open markets and the rule of law - is the basis of a prosperous economy."
According to Mr. Alvin Toffer, during the early generations of this socio-economic transition, we will witness the precipitation of a wide range of events and trends that will disrupt every kind of social institution. These 'unsettling events' will be fueled by a subliminal battle between those who seek to preserve industrialism and those who seek to supplant it.

Hence, evidently, the first generation of The Third Wave, i.e. the foreseeable future, will be a period of extreme pandemonium. When there is pandemonium, there is widespread insecurity and panic. When people are in a state of trepidation, the price of gold, which is the barometer for fear, skyrockets. Therefore, any investor who seeks to profit from the turmoil, that will punctuate much of the foreseeable future of this planet, should dedicate a growing proportion of his/her portfolio's assets to gold.

You can't go wrong by investing in gold!